Nairobi’s upmarket neighborhoods like Runda, Muthaiga, and Lavington have long been prime real estate hubs, attracting high-income tenants, including expatriates working with NGOs and international aid organizations. However, a recent policy shift in the United States under President Donald Trump has sent ripples through Kenya’s property market, creating uncertainty for landlords. In this SEO-friendly blog post, Makao Bora dives into the issue with insights from Kenya’s renowned business reporter, Peter Opondo, who recently responded to a Business Daily article on the topic. His analysis highlights the difference between risk and uncertainty in business and offers practical advice for landlords navigating this challenging landscape.
The Impact of Trump’s Aid Cuts on Nairobi’s Real Estate
In 2023, Kenya received $850 million (Sh110 billion) in US aid, supporting over 230 projects, many of which employed high-income expatriates who rented homes in Nairobi’s leafy suburbs. However, following Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025, he ordered a review of US foreign aid, including a freeze on funds flowing through the US Agency for International Development (USAID). This decision has led to layoffs and tenant exits, particularly in the NGO sector, causing a noticeable dip in demand for rental properties in upmarket areas.
According to a Business Daily report, neighborhoods like Muthaiga, Nyari, and Kilimani have seen rental asking prices drop by up to 4.9% in the first quarter of 2025. Property agencies like Knight Frank and Hass Consult have noted a cooling-off in these markets as expatriates, who often pay premium rents, scale back or leave Kenya altogether. For landlords, this sudden shift has introduced a level of uncertainty that’s difficult to plan for.
Peter Opondo’s Analysis: Risk vs. Uncertainty
Peter Opondo, a respected business journalist, used this scenario to illustrate the difference between risk and uncertainty in a recent analysis shared with his students. His insights, which Makao Bora has adapted for this post, provide a framework for understanding the current real estate challenges and how landlords can respond.
Risk: The Predictable Challenge
Opondo explains that risk is something landlords can anticipate and plan for. For example:
  • You might expect a rental property to remain vacant for one or two months in a year.
  • A tenant could move out, and it may take weeks or months to find a replacement.
These scenarios are quantifiable, and savvy landlords can factor them into their financial planning by setting aside reserves or adjusting rental rates. This is the kind of risk that has always been part of the real estate business in Nairobi.
Uncertainty: The Unpredictable Disruption
Unc Uncertainty, on the other hand, is far less predictable. Opondo notes that no landlord could have foreseen that Trump’s aid cuts would directly impact their rental income. The freeze on USAID funding and the resulting layoffs in Kenya’s NGO sector were unexpected, creating a ripple effect that has left landlords scrambling. Unlike risk, uncertainty cannot be quantified in advance, making it harder to prepare for.
How Landlords Can Navigate Uncertainty
Opondo’s advice for businesses—and landlords specifically—is to monitor, analyze, and adapt as uncertainty unfolds. Here are actionable steps Nairobi landlords can take to manage the current situation:
  1. Monitor Market Trends Closely
    Stay informed about developments in the aid sector and real estate market. For instance, track updates on US foreign aid policies and local rental trends through reliable sources like Business Daily or property agencies like Hass Consult.
  2. Analyze Patterns
    Look for emerging patterns in the market. Are certain neighborhoods recovering faster? Are local tenants filling the gap left by expatriates? Understanding these trends can help you adjust your strategy.
  3. Convert Uncertainty into Manageable Risk
    Once patterns emerge, take steps to mitigate risks. For example:
    • Lower Asking Prices: A slight reduction in rent could attract local tenants or retain existing ones, as suggested by Hass Consult’s Chris Ismail.
    • Diversify Tenant Base: Target Kenyan professionals or diaspora buyers, who are less affected by aid cuts, as noted in the Business Daily report.
    • Offer Flexible Leases: Short-term or flexible leases may appeal to tenants in uncertain times.
  4. Leverage Professional Support
    Partner with reputable property agencies like Makao Bora to market your property effectively and find reliable tenants quickly.
The Silver Lining for Tenants and Buyers
While landlords face challenges, Opondo’s analysis aligns with insights from industry experts like Mark Dunford of Knight Frank, who sees a potential upside. The correction in rental prices could make upmarket properties more affordable for tenants and buyers. As Dunford noted, “There could be a silver lining in the correction of pricing. It’s not good for the landlord, but it’s great for consumers.”
This shift presents an opportunity for Kenyan professionals, diaspora investors, and even first-time buyers to enter Nairobi’s prestigious neighborhoods at lower price points. Makao Bora can help you explore these opportunities, connecting you with properties that match your budget and lifestyle.
Why Choose Makao Bora?
At Makao Bora, we understand the challenges and opportunities in Nairobi’s evolving real estate market. Whether you’re a landlord seeking to navigate uncertainty or a tenant looking for an affordable upmarket home, our team is here to help. We offer:
  • Expert Market Insights: Stay ahead with our in-depth knowledge of Nairobi’s property trends.
  • Tailored Solutions: From tenant sourcing to property management, we make real estate stress-free.
  • Affordable Housing Options: Explore our portfolio
Trump’s aid cuts have introduced unprecedented uncertainty for Nairobi’s upmarket landlords, but with the right approach, this challenge can be managed. As Peter Opondo emphasizes, the key is to monitor developments, analyze patterns, and convert uncertainty into manageable risk. By adapting to the changing market, landlords can protect their investments, while tenants and buyers can seize new opportunities in Nairobi’s prestigious neighborhoods.
For personalized support, contact Makao Bora today. Let us help you thrive in Kenya’s dynamic real estate market!
Sources:
  • Business Daily article: “Trump’s aid cuts hit Nairobi upmarket home landlords”
  • Peter Opondo’s analysis on risk and uncertainty – Facebook Post.